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03/06/2010 - Florence, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Juventus moved back into the top four in the Serie A table on Saturday as Fabio Grosso scored in the 68th minute of a 2-1 Juve win over Fiorentina at the Artemio Franchi.
Diego put the visitors in front in the opening minutes, but had his goal canceled out before halftime by former Juve man Marco Marchionni. However, Grosso was able to give the Turin side the lead for good 22 minutes from time.
Fiorentina remains in 10th place with the loss, and they could fall further from a European spot after Sunday's results.
Juve took the lead with their first chance of the game as Antonio Candreva played a ball to Diego, who looked close to being offside. However, the flag stayed down and Diego rounded goalkeeper Sebastian Frey and finished off the move to put his team ahead inside of two minutes.
The hosts tried to answer right away and they tested goalkeeper Alex Manninger with a number of efforts over the next 20 minutes.
Alberto Gilardino had two shots saved by Manninger before a free kick from Riccardo Montolivo was also turned away, but Manninger could not keep out a header from Marchionni in the 32nd minute.
Neither side seriously threatened after the break until Juve took the lead in the 68th minute as Grosso drove a well-placed shot into the upper corner past Frey.
The Viola had a penalty appeal turned down minutes later when Giorgio Chiellini appeared to handle the ball inside his own area, but they were unable to really test Manninger over the remainder of the contest.
AC Milan and Roma finished 0-0 at the Stadio Olimpico in Saturday's other match, moving Milan to within three points of leaders Inter Milan, who face Genoa on Sunday.
<< NAC halts PSV's unbeaten run
Breda, Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - PSV Eindhoven suffered its first league
defeat of the season on Saturday at NAC as Robert Schilder scored the winning
goal in the 72nd minute.
Orlando Engelaar put PSV in front after 18 minutes, bu
<< Falcons sign CB Robinson
Flowery Branch, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Falcons announced the
signing of free agent cornerback Dunta Robinson Saturday to what is reported
to be a six-year contract worth $57 million.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution rep
<< McCourt: Divorce not affecting team
GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) -Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt says divorce proceedings with his wife are not affecting the team's finances.McCourt was visiting his team for the first time this spring.He has had only brief interaction with the media
<< Nancy clips Nice in stoppage time
Nice, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Substitute Issiar Dia scored in stoppage time
to hand Nancy a 3-2 win over Nice at the Municipal du Ray on Saturday.
Djamel Bakar scored five minutes into the game for Nancy, but the hosts
answered tw
Former PGA Tour winner Pate leads Bogota Open >>
Bogota, Colombia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former PGA Tour winner Steve Pate had a
five-under 66 Saturday to take a two-shot lead after three rounds of the
Nationwide Tour's Bogota Open.
The 48-year-old Pate birdied five of his last 11 hol
Villegas alone in first at PGA National >>
Palm Beach Gardens, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Camilo Villegas posted a three-under
67 on Saturday to take sole possession of the lead after the third round of
the Honda Classic.
Villegas finished 54 holes at 11-under 199 and is three stroke
Stanford finishes off perfect Pac-10 slate >>
Berkeley, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kayla Pedersen had 23 points and Nnemkadi
Ogwumike scored 22, as No. 2 Stanford beat California, 63-48, to wrap up their
first undefeated Pac-10 season since 2002.
Ogwumike added 14 rebounds and Pederse
Real Madrid joins Barca on top >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rafael Van der Vaart's stoppage-time goal
gave Real Madrid a 3-2 comeback win over Sevilla at the Santiago Bernabeu on
Saturday, while Barcelona could only manage a 2-2 draw with Almeria, leaving
the two
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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