Black takes new deal into Padres/Braves series

Baseball Betting Lines

07/20/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Under Bud Black, the Padres have become one of the biggest successful surprises in 2010. The San Diego manager is now reaping the rewards of that achievement.

The Padres take the field for the first time since Black was given a three- year contract extension as they visit another surprise at the top of the standings, the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves, for the first of three straight games at Turner Field.

The Padres hold the NL's top record at 54-37, just ahead of the Braves' 54-38 mark, and on Monday their manager was given a new deal that also includes club options for 2014 and 2015. San Diego is 281-297 in three-plus seasons since Black was hired in November of 2006.

"This news comes at a time when the team is playing well, but my faith in Bud goes far beyond wins and losses," said general manager Jed Hoyer, who also called the extension for Black well deserved. "He and his staff are exceptionally well prepared, he embraces the challenge of teaching young players and, most importantly, the players compete for him every night."

Black's club has relied heavily on its pitching this year in its run to the top of the NL West, leading the majors with a collective 3.25 earned run average, but has plated 35 runs over a four-game win streak, San Diego's longest since also winning four in a row from May 22-26.

The Padres opened the second half with a three-game sweep of their division's last-place club, the Diamondbacks, taking Sunday's finale by a 6-4 margin. Chris Denorfia matched a career high with four hits, homering twice for the first time in his career to double his season total, as the Padres pounded out 14 hits to move a season-high 17 games over .500.

Tony Gwynn Jr. added a pair of hits, two walks and two stolen bases and Kevin Correia got the win after allowing three runs over six innings, striking out a season-high nine batters for San Diego, which leads the NL West by four games over the Giants.

The Padres figure to face a stiffer challenge tonight in the Braves, who lead the NL East by 5 1/2 games over the Mets but had lost three of four prior to Sunday's 11-6 triumph over the Brewers. Brian McCann hit the sixth grand slam of his career and drove in a season-high five runs as Atlanta split its four- game series.

"Anytime you get the bases loaded you want to get a big hit with less than two outs. I was lucky enough to get an 0-2 pitch that I know the pitcher didn't want to put it there, but I capitalized on it," McCann said. "Everybody hit today, it was a great team effort. Everybody worked the count, took what the pitcher gave us and were able to score some runs."

Matt Diaz also homered and drove in three runs, while Omar Infante had four hits, two RBI and scored twice. Winning pitcher Derek Lowe yielded three runs over 5 1/3 innings of work as Atlanta was without third baseman Chipper Jones for a second game in a row due to a left hamstring strain.

Atlanta might not need Jones again tonight given how Jair Jurrjens has pitched in three games since returning from a two-month stint on the disabled list. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA since coming back and he beat Milwaukee on Thursday after giving up just a run on six hits and two walks over 6 2/3 innings of a 2-1 triumph.

Jurrjens is 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA in eight starts and has been tough to handle this year at Turner Field, where he is 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA in four starts.

One of Jurrjens' outings before his injury came in San Diego on April 12 and he was drilled for eight runs over just 3 1/3 innings of a 17-2 setback, falling to 1-1 with a 5.29 ERA in three career starts versus the Padres.

Jurrjens will try to deal the Padres their first loss since Wade LeBlanc's last outing on July 10, when he gave up four runs on nine hits, including three homers, over 5 2/3 innings of a setback to the Rockies.

The 25-year-old lefty, who faces the Braves for the first time in his career this evening, fell to 4-7 on the season with a 3.30 ERA.

Atlanta manager Bobby Cox won't be calling the shots tonight after getting suspended for a game on Monday. Cox and reliever Jonny Venters were both ejected on Saturday after Venters hit Milwaukee's Prince Fielder with a pitch in the eighth inning after warnings had already been issued to both benches. Venters was suspended for four games by major league baseball and given an undisclosed fine.

The Braves took two of three from the Padres in San Diego from April 12-15 and have won seven of the last nine played at Turner Field in the series.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your college football betting needs.

How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on college football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.