Berkman's timely hit lifts Astros over White Sox

Baseball Betting Lines

06/09/2007 - Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lance Berkman had three-hits, including an RBI single in the top of the ninth to lift the Houston Astros over the Chicago White Sox, 3-2, in the second of a three-game interleague series at U.S. Cellular Field.

Adam Everett opened the ninth with a single off Bobby Jenks (2-2). Orlando Palmeiro lined out, but Mark Loretta punched a base hit to right field before Berkman's single to center scored Everett and broke a 2-2 tie.

The three-hit performance was a highlight in an otherwise tumultuous week for Berkman, who is appealing a suspension by Major League Baseball for his outburst following an ejection on Tuesday against Colorado. He was ejected again Friday night in the top of the fourth inning after arguing a called third strike.

Chad Qualls (5-3), who got the final out of the eighth, also came back for the ninth, striking out Rob Mackowiak with a runner on third to end the game.

Eric Munson homered for the Astros, who have won two straight. Houston starter Jason Jennings, bidding for his first win with the team, took a 2-0 lead into the eighth inning before Chicago eventually tied the game. Jennings departed with an official line of one run on six hits, with a walk and six strikeouts over seven-plus innings.

Jon Garland gave up a run and eight hits in seven innings for the White Sox, who have dropped five straight and 11 of their last 13 games overall. Jim Thome added a two-run double.

Munson's leadoff homer in the top of the third gave the Astros a 1-0 lead.

The White Sox, meanwhile, had at least a runner on in every inning through the fourth, before back-to-back, one-out singles by Luis Terrero and Josh Fields in the fifth. Mackowiak and Tadahito Iguchi both flied out to end the inning, however, as the Sox continued to struggle with runners in scoring position.

Houston tacked on a run in the eighth, loading the bases against reliever Bret Prinz. Loretta drew a leadoff walk, Berkman doubled, and Prinz intentionally walked Carlos Lee before he was replaced by Boone Logan. Luke Scott grounded into a force out, with Iguchi cutting down the lead runner at the plate, but Mike Lamb's sacrifice fly plated Berkman for a 2-0 edge.

Chicago then managed to scrape two together in the eighth. Fields started things with a leadoff single, chasing Jennings, and Mackowiak was hit by a pitch from reliever Trever Miller. Iguchi's sacrifice bunt moved the runners, and Thome followed with a two-run double to make it a 2-2 game.

Game Notes

White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski was suspended for one game and fined an undisclosed amount by Major League Baseball for his inappropriate actions during the bottom of the eighth inning of Thursday's game against the New York Yankees. Pierzynski appealed, and the suspension will be held in abeyance until the process is complete....Houston improved to 81-73 all-time in interleague play, while the White Sox fell to 101-79 versus the NL.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.

American Idol Betting Odds: Season 6  

The online gambling websites are in the process of deciphering each American Idol contestant and his or her chances of winning Season 6 to come up with the early American Idol betting lines.

Tim Dalton of MySportsbook.com has been locked away in a soundproof room coming up with all the latest tallies, we are told. "American Idol has become one of the most significant betting events of the year," claims Jack Black of MySportsbook.com.  "Last year, millions were bet during the season across the globe, not just in America.

It's tough early on since we really do not have a glimpse as to how well each of these individuals will perform solo on a week-to-week basis.  It's like Week 1 of the NFL.  Pre-season means nada!

We do know the 24 finalists however.

Sanjaya Malakar is the young man whose sister failed to make it into the Top 24.  He's very low key but - unless he totally flubs - will probably win over the young girlie vote for a few weeks anyway.  He's too young to go all the way, according to Payton O'Brien. 

Brandon Rogers - Who?

Phil Stacy is the military guy who missed his daughter's birth because of the Memphis audition.  He should go a good distance.

Chris Sligh - He's got the humor and in many ways he's the Anti-American Idol much like last year's winner Taylor Hicks was.  And this is why he'll probably get pretty far in this competition.  He's chubby, white with a big curly afro....but more importantly, a great voice!  People love "real", not "real cute" to go all the way. 

"Blake Lewis should go far because of his uniqueness and looks.  He's the boy next store with a twist - he beat boxes.  But on top of this, he's a great singer, and I adore him," Payton O'Brien relayed.

A talented beat-boxer Blake Lewis was a hit during the group sing in Hollywood but Simon explained that this is a singing contest just before he told him he was “in.”

Paul Kim has caught our own roving reporter, Jenny Woo's eyes. 

"I love the fact that there is a Korean American on the show and he is bound to get more Asians tuning into the show," Woo said from her Miami Beach estate.  "There has never been a major presence of Asian-Americans on American Idol in the past.  He's a hottie with a nice voice so that should help to take him far.  Expect heavy betting action from the Asian community."

Sundance Head - He's not perfect, but he's got the personality that will take him through a few weeks, plus he's got the lineage (son of Roy Head - whose 1965 single, "Treat Her Right," hit No. 5 in the charts) 

And the others:

Rudy Cardinas
AJ Tabaldo - the 5th time is the charm
Nicolas Pedro
Chris Richardson
Jared Cotter

The girls

"Melinda Doolittle has one of the best voices," says MySportsbook.com Reporter and an acclaimed dancer in her own right, Destiney Lewis.  "It is great to see a back up singer step out like she has.  The girl needs to gain more confidence but that can also be a positive.  I think she will go far."

Alena Alexander - Those tears (she never seems to stop bawling) should get her far.

"Single mom Lakisha Jones I suspect will be a pretty big favorite entering Week 1 of the competition," says Destiny Williams.  Jones is an excellent singer and down to earth.  "She'll have a wide appeal," echoed O'Brien.

Nicole Trellis - Seems to exert confidence.

Amy Krebs - a powerful singer.

Antonella Barba
Gina Glocksen
Hailey Scanardo
Jordan Sparks
Stephanie Edwards
Leslie Hunt
Sabrina Sloan

MySportsbook.com is offering a 20% signup bonus with an initial deposit (i.e. open your American Idol betting account with $300, receive another $60 in which to bet with). 

Last two contestants will be?

1 Male/1 Female +100 (a $10 bet pays $10 plus your initial $10)

2 Males +170 (a $10 bet pays $17 plus your initial $17)

2 Females +130 (a $10 bet pays $13 plus your initial $10)

MySportsbook.com is an online sportsbook accepts Visa Credit Cards and online sportsbook accepts Mastercard Credit Cards for easy American Idol betting lines.